The Goto-day and month-end, around the midpoint of the dollar/yen, behaved differently|Counted over 10 years and 710 days
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There is a time in the USD/JPY when it moves best, every morning at9:55.
It is the time determined by banks for the day's exchange rate,the "Naka-ne" (level-rate)is called.
Gotō-bi (fifty-day)refers to days that end in5 and 10such as the 5th and 10th.
In Japan, payments between companies and settlement of prices tend to cluster on Gotō-bi and the end of the month.
Therefore in FX, it is often said that“Around Gotō-bi or the end of the month, the USD/JPY tends to rise toward the Naka-ne”.
Because importers buy dollars to pay overseas.
I checked whether this is really the case by counting ten years of USD/JPY data (October 2016 to September 2026).
Definitions used in this article
- Gotō-bi: 5, 10, 15, 20, 25
- End of month: the last business day of that month (such as 30th or 31st)
- If it falls on a weekend or holiday, it is shifted to the previous business day for both cases
- Before the Naka-ne:8:00–9:55After the Naka-ne:9:55–11:00
※ In dictionaries, Gotō-bi also includes the 30th, but in this article the 30th and 31st are categorized as “End of month.” Including the 30th as Gotō-bi gives almost the same results.
On Gotō-bi, “Before the Naka-ne” is different from “After the Naka-ne” at the end of the month
The dashed line represents ordinary days (not Gotō-bi or end of month).
Gotō-bi: days that rose before the Naka-ne 62%
End of month: days that fell after the Naka-ne 63%
Ordinary days: days that rose before the Naka-ne 54%, and days that fell after the Naka-ne 55%.
Gotō-bi and end of month together are about8 percentage points more likelythan ordinary days.
On the other hand,the days that rose before the Naka-ne at the end of the month are 52% and almost the same as ordinary days.
The claim that “the dollar rises before the Naka-ne at the end of the month” could not be confirmed in this decade.
※ Even on ordinary days the rise is a bit more than half because the USD/JPY has risen from about 101 to about 158 in this decade.
I use this 9:55 a.m. time as a “FX Voice Reminder” to read my own text at a set time (a product I sell).
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When the Naka-ne moves significantly before and after, I also look at the prior high and low. The line is drawn automatically with the MT5 indicator “Omakase水平線” (the product I sell).