[Side Story] Real Trade Analysis of MTF (Multi-Time-Frame) Analysis Practical Example

Hello! This is SAKU!

Until recently, we delivered a three-part beginner series on MTF analysis (Multi-Time Frame analysis / analysis across multiple timeframes) introductory articlein three installments, but

I happened to have a trade recently that seems perfect for an explanation of MTF analysis, so I’ll take the opportunity to walk you through it!

If you read the beginner articles and developed an interest in MTF analysis, this article will help you visualize it even more!

・Overview of the trade

First, please take a look at the image below.

What I will explain this time are the trades ①–③ in the red box on the trade history screen above (USD/JPY, short). These are trades in roughly a day-to-swing timeframe where MTF analysis is the main focus.

All entry points are the same (entered with a total of 1 million units), but each was partially closed around points ①–③ on the chart.

Also, other trades would require explanations of different methods, so I’ll skip them this time.

※By the way, the other methods refer to things like candlestick price action and volume analysis, along with an original method I call “MMS analysis” that factors in market structure and supply-demand balance—quite advanced. I’m currently preparing a guide on this method, so please look forward to it!

Now, let’s begin the explanation of MTF analysis. First, we’ll start with the higher timeframe context!

Also note that lines drawn on the daily chart are yellow, those on the 4-hour chart are purple, and those on the 1-hour chart are light blue.

・Daily chart (higher timeframe) contextual awareness



If you look at the left side of the chart, the daily was overall rising, but after a pullback high (circled in yellow), it sharply fell, ending the uptrend, and up until the entry point it was rising with waves in a choppy manner.

If this pullback high is updated, a downtrend begins, but at the entry point the “update of the pullback high” had not occurred yet.

“Environment awareness”

・Daily → Uptrend ends and pullback high is updated to enter a downtrend (a situation with no clear up or down trend)

Please refer to that!

Next, let’s look at the axis’s base timeframe, the 4-hour chart!

4-hour chart (base timeframe) contextual awareness



On the 4-hour chart, up to the entry point (around the “Line Break Expansion Diagram”), it looks like an uptrend, but it hasn’t surpassed the pullback high (the pink circled area). Also, unlike the daily chart, it has already entered a downtrend.

In other words, it is a scene where the price is rising within a downtrend (a corrective move).

Moreover, because the 4-hour uptrend line (purple line) breaks downward (“Line Break Expansion Diagram”), it suggests a shift from a corrective rise to a decline.

From around here, I started waiting for a short entry timing.

By the way, the rising right shoulder line on the 4-hour chartis not an “uptrend line”so please be careful. Names don’t really matter, but if your line definitions are vague, its use will be too. Be mindful! (This is described in more detail inMTF Multi-Time Frame Analysis: The Essentials, so please refer there.)

“Environment Awareness”

・ Daily → Uptrend ends and pullback high updated to downtrend (a situation with no clear up or down trend)・ 4-hour → Downtrend in progress, expect a relief rally to end

Next, to gauge entry timing, let’s look at the lower timeframe (1-hour).

1-hour chart (lower timeframe)



On the 1-hour chart, at the area labeled “sell entry,” there was a break below the 1-hour uptrend line (light blue) followed by a return move.

If you’re wondering what a return move is, please refer topast articles.

・ The daily chart already shows an end to the uptrend,

・ On the 4-hour chart, a downtrend has already begun, and it’s possible to expect the end of a corrective rise and a shift back to decline,

・ There is a return move occurring against the 1-hour uptrend line

With these in mind,I entered a short at the area labeled “sell entry.”

The stop loss at that time was set a little above the 1-hour uptrend line, about 30 pips.

・ Partial take profit

Subsequently, the price declined smoothly,

Regarding partial take profits,

① → around the purple dotted line of the 4-hour chart (near point ① in the above image) indicating a rebound

② → similarly, the purple dotted line for the 4-hour chart (near point ② in the above image)

as a guide to close partially,

③ I tried to let it run as far as possible, but I closed when a long lower wick appeared on the daily chart at the bottom of the image (yellow dotted line).

Also, since I had already moved the stop to break-even at point ①, I avoided a losing trade at that stage.

In terms of pip gain and risk-reward, respectively

① → approx. 85 pips / risk-reward about 1:3

② → approx. 300 pips / risk-reward approximately 1:10

③ → approx. 583 pips / risk-reward approx 1:20

That’s how it turned out.

Personally, it was fairly decent.

・In closing

So, as an extra piece, I explained a practical example of MTF analysis based on a real trade!

If you found this content challenging, want to learn more from the basics, or would like to study other entry patterns, cuts, profit-taking, and capital management, please check out my trading methods via the links below!

If you want to learn MTF analysis and line analysis thoroughly from the basics to achieve more advanced and reproducible trading, check this out! ↓

→Essentials of MTF Multi-Time Frame Analysis

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