[Daily Market Analysis] August 29 GOLD & BTC: Structural changes after the vertical plunge and the rebound selling scenario

Hello everyone. This is "Loonchi FX".
Today, in response to the vertical plunge that occurred in the New York market last night, we reset the conventional long stance to neutral, and specifically deliver a practical trading plan focused on “which key levels are working” and “how far it needs to retrace to sell (reversal sell)”. We hope this can serve as a reference for daily market environment assessment and chart checks.

1. GOLD (XAU/USD) Detailed Trade Scenario

Current price: approximately 4,456 - 4,460 dollars

? Context from higher to lower timeframes and logical basis

• Rationale for the daily and 4-hour (D1 / H4) timeframes:
  A long-required support band at 4,530 - 4,540 dollars and the long-term trend line (around 4,440 dollars) were broken with a single sharp drop by a large bearish candle. The upward-trend structure on higher timeframes has collapsed, shifting to selling pressure dominant in the short to medium term (trend reversal).
• Rationale for the 15-minute and 30-minute (M15 / M30) timeframes:
  From the high 4,620s, a rapid decline occurred with almost no pullbacks, finding a tentative support at the recent lows around 4,450 - 4,456 dollars. In the wake of the rapid drop’s overbought condition (over-sold), a short-term autonomous rebound is possible, but the level that was recently broken at 4,530 - 4,540 dollars has transformed into a strong “reversal sell resistance band” (roll reversal).

? Specific Entry & Settlement Levels (GOLD)

• Core retracement sell point:4,530 - 4,540 dollars
  Rationale:A major level that acted as strong support before the drop. Once broken, it becomes a roll reversal zone where strong selling orders wait.
• Nearby retracement sell point:4,480 - 4,490 dollars
  Rationale:A short-term resistance level formed during the rapid decline, serving as a temporary wall on M15/M30 timeframes.
• Withdrawal (stop loss / SL) line:Over 4,565 dollars
  Rationale:The prior pullback low just before the intraday drop on the H1 timeframe. If price breaks above this and returns, the momentum of the drop dies, so a stop loss will be executed.
• Target (take profit) levels:
  ・Target 1: 4,450 dollars (recent lows / intraday support)
  ・Target 2: 4,390 - 4,410 dollars (next major support zone on higher timeframes)

⚙️ Entry Execution Procedure (Price Action Confirmation)

Pattern A (Retracement Sell Procedure):
When price rises to 4,480 - 4,490 dollars or 4,530 - 4,540 dollars and forms a confirmed candle on the 15-minute chart, enter a short position at the next candle’s open price after a long upper wick bearish candle or a bullish engulfing (big bearish candle) appears.

Pattern B (Low Update Break Sell Procedure):
When the 15-minute candle closes with a clear break below 4,450 dollars, enter a follow-on short at the next candle’s open price to accelerate downside momentum.

2. BTC (BTC/USD) Detailed Trade Scenario

Current price: approximately 77,520 - 77,580 dollars

? Context from higher to lower timeframes and logical basis

• Rationale for the daily and 4-hour (D1 / H4) timeframes:
  A major support around 80,000 dollars and a key level at 79,200 dollars were broken with a large bearish candle. The lower-high in the H4 timeframe confirms a downward trend, and the Dow theory of the upward swing has been invalidated, shifting to a selling-dominant setup.
• Rationale for the 15-minute and 30-minute (M15 / M30) timeframes:
  From just below 80,000 dollars, price extended vertically down to 77,300 - 77,500 dollars. At the moment, price is consolidating around 77,320 - 77,500 dollars, but strong resistance exists above at 78,000 - 78,070 dollars and 79,200 dollars where buyers were previously knocked down.

? Specific Entry & Settlement Levels (BTC)

• Core retracement sell point:79,000 - 79,200 dollars
  Rationale:A previous support level on the H1/H4 timeframes. A strong reversal sell concentration zone due to roll reversal.
• Shallow retracement sell point:78,000 - 78,070 dollars
  Rationale:Temporary resistance formed on M15/M30 right after the plunge (just below the old major level).
• Withdrawal (stop loss / SL) line:Over 79,800 dollars
  Rationale:The rebound high just before the 80,000 level. If price breaks above this, the sharp drop scenario collapses, so stop loss immediately.
• Target (take profit) levels:
  ・Target 1: 77,300 dollars (recent low line)
  ・Target 2: 75,300 - 76,000 dollars (next major support target on the H4 timeframe)

⚙️ Entry Execution Procedure (Price Action Confirmation)

Pattern A (Retracement Sell Procedure):
When price retraces to 78,000 - 78,070 dollars or 79,000 - 79,200 dollars and forms a confirmed bearish candle with a long upper wick or a candle that rejects higher prices on the 15-minute or 5-minute chart, enter a short at the next candle’s open price.

Pattern B (Low Update Break Sell Procedure):
When the 15-minute candle closes with a clear break below 77,300 dollars, enter a short at the next candle’s open price.

3. Today's Trading Rules

• Avoid easy “contrarian buys (longs)”:
  Given the downward momentum on higher timeframes, attempting to buy dips or contrarian longs right after a strong sell signal is extremely risky and akin to grabbing a falling knife.
• Wait for a full retrace before selling:
  Selling at the tip of the plunge (GOLD: around 4,450; BTC: around 77,300) can be stopped out by a short-term autonomous rebound. Always wait for a retrace to a key level (support-turned-resistance) or wait for confirmation of a lower low before trading.

【Disclaimer】
This article aims to objectively analyze and provide information on charts and market data, and does not endorse or advise specific buying or selling actions.