Before the FOMC――Even with PCE softening and solid earnings, semiconductor stocks are being sold. ※The notation is a bit distorted, so it’s being corrected.
Today's Perspective
Tonight's FOMC meeting is more about how far to tighten while accepting price deceleration rather than whether to raise rates. In semiconductors, there were record profits and stock declines at the same time. What unites both is that the market is starting to evaluate not only the current numbers but also the next quarter.
Key Points This Time
01|FOMC
Reading beyond the hold
Confirm the outcome as a single result including the statement, vote, and post-meeting U.S. 2-year yields.
02|Semiconductors
Strong results and declines coexisting
A need to distinguish current performance from what the market prices in for the future.
03|Stocks
Broad declines or leadership rotation
Indices and sectors other than semiconductors will be the material for judging price moves.
Two twists I want to confirm today
Inflation indicators are cooling, so why can't the Fed lift the caution? Why was SK Hynix, showing excess demand and record-high profits, sold off? From here, I will sequentially organize the estimated PCE, the latest changes among Fed members, and the supply structure priced in by the semiconductor market.
From here, we will verify two twists using the PCE estimates and the official results