Don't stop at the word "deception" — The "key to the future" hidden in range and noise
1.1 The Reality Behind the Beautiful Upward Trend
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When you open the chart and find an ideal upward trend line that stretches in a clean, single line, you can’t help but feel excited, thinking, “If I buy here, I’ll win!”
In an uptrend, every pullback rebounds in a textbook manner and rises neatly. In a downtrend, the retracement highs are stopped neatly and it quietly goes down. What you typically see in FX textbooks and online information is only those “easy-to-understand, beautiful markets” that anyone can recognize.
But, let me tell you a little bit about reality.
When you actually start real trading, markets that move smoothly like a slide without friction are only a handful of times in a year. Real markets are more lively and irregular, where the real confusion and circumstances of people who want to sell and those who want to buy clash in a somewhat muddy, down-to-earth place.
Many traders find it incredibly painful as soon as they enter this irregular, range-bound movement.
The moving average that was so reliable just a moment ago becomes flat, and it repeatedly experiences gold crosses and death crosses and betrays you. When you touch the edge of Bollinger Bands and think, “From here it’s a trend!” you suddenly move with the next moment in the opposite direction to the other edge. You buy with confidence that you’ve clearly broken through the resistance line, only for the candlesticks to return to the range with a long upper wick…
At such times, many people think like this.