The Matchmaking AI Development Story Episode 7 — Four Reasons AI Waits (Surge in Volatility, Plunge, Spread Anomalies, and Low Retention Rate)
Thus far, the authority given to Enmusubi AI has been only a limitless capacity to“stop new buying; wait”. In this episode, we will specify that “wait.” There are four major situations where AI will refrain from new entries, and each time, the reason is displayed in Japanese on a sakura panel at the “Enmusubi Courtyard.”
Enmusubi AI is a model that does not use stop-losses. Therefore,not increasing new buys in dangerous situationsis the best defense. Rather than aggressive decisions, it’s about retreating. The lifeline of this EA is whether it can correctly choose “not to buy now.”
Humans are prone to think, “If I don’t enter here, I’ll miss out,” when markets are tumultuous. Enmusubi AI is the opposite:in chaos, it quietly stops. Its exit point has been automated with the following four rules.
① Rapid surge in volatility
When price moves wildly. Entering when the range is several times wider than usual leads to whipsaws up and down and erosion in a round trip. We skip new entries until it settles down.
② Rapid fall
When there is a large drop within the day. For a buy-only EA, grabbing a falling knife is forbidden. Wait until the decline stabilizes and the bottom can be confirmed.
③ Abnormal spread
When the trading cost (spread) widens beyond the normal range for that instrument. It tends to occur during low-liquidity times or around news indicators, and there is no need to enter at disadvantageous prices. Wait until it returns to normal.
④ Declining margin maintenance rate
When account free margin becomes thin. Increasing positions here is dangerous. Stop new entries and prioritize recovery of current holdings.
None of these require difficult predictions.“Because it’s dangerous, we don’t enter now”is a rule to be implemented without emotional interference. When activated, the reason appears in the Enmusubi Courtyard as a label like “Flower chilling (休み).”
※The diagram is an illustration of Enmusubi AI’s “waiting” approach. The actual thresholds and behavior may differ.
There is one thing I’d like to make clear. Stopping in these four scenarios is strictlyfor “new buys”. It does not stop existing positions from averaging down (dollar-cost averaging) or moves toward recovery.
If movement is stopped during ongoing trades, you could inadvertently cut off the recovery scenario with your own hands.New entries must be careful; existing positions require perseverance. I consider this boundary the best-compatible protective approach with a no-stop-loss design.
The four rules for “waiting” (volatility surge, rapid drop, abnormal spread, declining margin) are not meant to increase profits.They are functions to prevent making losses worse in dangerous situations. And the reasons for stopping can always be checked in the Enmusubi Courtyard.
However, just to be clear: even if you stop new entries,unrealized losses you carry do not disappear. If a broad yen appreciation lasts, it will be painful, and worst-case collapse is possible in this design. Therefore, please monitor withavailable funds.
※This article is intended to provide information and is not an investment solicitation. The displayed performance results are past performance and do not guarantee future profits. FX/CFD trading involves risks. Please make investment decisions at your own responsibility.