NK225 Futures MTF Dow Theory 4-Scenario Analysis Report 2026-06-15 (for the Asia-Pacific session)
NK225 Futures MTF Dow Theory Analysis Report
1. Trend Table
Uptrend / Upward Wave. Turning price 64,520, pullback low 62,350, retracement high 66,110 (X = close above). After clearing 66,110, price continued higher and closed at 67,440 with a +0.25% bullish candle (high 67,440, low 67,260). 20EMA / 20SMA rising; price significantly above 120EMA (daily 20EMA equivalent around 64,700) and 200EMA (63,550 / psychological level).
Uptrend / Upward Wave. Turning price 66,680, pullback low 62,350, retracement high 64,840 (X = close above). The latest pullback low (turning point) is 66,680. 20EMA / 80EMA (4H 20EMA equivalent) / 480EMA (daily 20EMA equivalent) are all upward and price sits above them.
Uptrend / Upward Wave. Turning price 67,210, pullback low 66,470, retracement high --- (not yet formed due to new high chasing). Gap up start, cleared 66,800 intraday and turned, then 67,270 → 66,470 → 67,530 (night high) → 67,210, closing at 67,440. 20EMA / 80EMA (1H 20EMA equivalent) / 320EMA (4H 20EMA equivalent) all rising and price above them.
2. Important Price Levels
3. Validation of Previous Trade Idea
Target: Night Session
Night opens with a gap up, clears 66,800 intraday close, turning price. After a pullback, re-break of 66,800 initiates entry. 67,190 close on 1H confirms position activation with T1 achieved. Night high extends to 67,530 while T2 at 67,620 remains unattained; MFE +730 builds initial position and trailing protection, closing at 67,440.
Pullback candidate zone 66,110–65,960 did not hold (night low 66,470). Standard rebound shape did not form or trigger.
Retracement zone 66,300–66,540 broke up but did not fulfill the condition 65,960 break + retracement stall, so did not trigger.
Price did not fall to 65,960 (prior day low / 1H turning) and thus no trigger as higher-timeframe trend remained bullish.
4. 4H Analysis
The 4H remains in an uptrend with rising waves, breaking above 66,110 and continuing higher to close at 67,440 with a +0.25% bullish candle. 20EMA / 20SMA are rising; price remains well above 120EMA (daily 20EMA around 64,700) and 200EMA (63,550). Indicates strong up-move alignment.
Upper targets: 67,890 (1H upside high), 68,800 (old ceiling). Lower targets: 66,470 (night low), 66,110 (4H break level = support turned), 64,520 (4H turning), 62,350 (4H pullback low). While not breaking 62,350, the general trend remains upward, but 67,440 is in a high-price zone approaching 68,800, suggesting caution for overheat in the top end.
5. 1H Analysis
1H maintains its uptrend and rising wave. Recent pullback low (turning) is 66,680. All of 20EMA / 80EMA (4H 20EMA equivalent) / 480EMA (daily 20EMA equivalent) are rising and price sits above them.
Expect continuation of rise with pullbacks between 67,210 and 66,800. If 66,680 closes below on 1H, it would be early sign of up-wave breakdown. A break below 66,110 would warn of 4H break failure.
6. 15m Analysis
15m shows a new-high chasing upmove, no retracement high formed yet (turning at 67,210, pullback low 66,470). All of 20EMA / 80EMA (1H 20EMA equivalent) / 320EMA (4H 20EMA equivalent) are rising and price sits above.
In the short term, 67,210 is the latest inflection line. Holding + rebound is a buy on dip; a close above 67,530 (night high) triggers breakout-following buys. If 67,210 breaks, look for pullback failure; 66,470 break would collapse the up move. Since 20EMA is rising, avoid aggressive buying on pullbacks.
7. Conclusion
Conclusion: Night session gap-up above 66,800 and wave turning; price reached 67,530 and closed at 67,440. All timeframes 4H / 1H / 15m show uptrend and rising waves; MA all rising and price above them, in a new high territory. For Monday, the bias is to favor pullback buys as the trend continues, but be cautious of weekend gap risk and confirm the gap at the open before acting.
If rebounding from 67,210–66,800, pullback buys are valid; a close above 67,530 (night high) supports breakout-following buying toward 68,800. If 66,470 (night low) breaks, the up-move risks breakdown; a break below 66,110 (4H break level) warns of 4H break failure. Given the new-high territory, use protective MFE triggers and watch gaps at Monday open.
To maintain consistency, all of 4H / 1H / 15m align in uptrend and direction; use higher timeframe bias with pullback buys and breakout-long as core strategy. Retracement selling is counter-trend and should be avoided until 67,210 breaks plus retracement stall confirmed.
8. Trade Ideas
- Trigger: Clear above 67,530 (night high) with a 15m close (new high chase).
- Setup: After breakout, wait for a return to near breakout price or near an ascending 20MA for a quick entry (back-entry, target around 67,530 area per breakout price).
- Position activation: recover to 67,620 with 1H close.
- Stop/invalid: initial leg below 67,180; main leg below 66,800.
- Targets: 67,890 (partial profit + cost basis), 68,800.
- RR: 67,530 breakout area baseline, 67,180 stop = RR1.0 for T1; 68,800 target gives RR3.6. Since T1 is around 1.0, favor back-entry and focus on main position.
- MFE protection: exit at +200 with cost basis or small profit; +300 secures at least +100 or trailing. Protect early in high-price zone.
- Standard: Pullback to 67,210–66,800 (15m turning to night wave turning break level = support turned) then confirm rebound with 15m close. Deep pullbacks include 66,680–66,470 (1H turning / night low) or 66,110 (4H break level).
- Setup: Rebound in pullback candidate zone confirmed by 15m close (early target 67,050 minor pullback; deep pullback 66,550). Enter above rising 20MA.
- Position activation: recover to 67,440 on 1H close.
- Stop/invalid: breaching 66,780 (66,080 on deep pullback) for the lead; 66,470 for main. Full exit if 66,110 breaks.
- Targets: 67,530 (partial profit + cost basis), 67,890–68,800.
- RR: 67,050 breakout line / 66,780 stop -> RR1.8; T2 67,890 / 68,800 -> RR3.1.
- MFE protection: exit at +200 with cost basis or small profit; +300 secures at least +100 or trailing. Favor shallow pullbacks and protect early in new-high regime.
- Standard: Break below 67,210 (15m turning) after closing below 67,210, then pull back to 67,300–67,530 to test stall (only for retracement play).
- Setup: Confirm stall in the retracement zone with 15m close (target ~67,380 as guide).
- Position activation: break 66,800 on 1H close.
- Stop/invalid: lead above 67,580 recovery; main above 67,530 recovery. Strong invalidation if 67,530 is recovered (Night high).
- Targets: 66,800 (partial profit + cost), 66,470–66,110.
- RR: 67,380 breakout / 67,580 stop -> RR2.9; 66,470 target +910 RR4.6.
- MFE protection: exit at +200 cost basis or small profit; +300 ensures at least +100 or trailing. Since higher timeframes are rising, avoid deep chasing; protect early in new-high territory. If a confirmed rally target is reached at firing foot, consider skipping.
- Trigger: Break below 66,470 (15m pullback low / night low) with 15m close (structure of up-move breaks down).
- Setup: After break, look for return near break price or to a slightly inclined 20MA as a pullback sell signal (back-entry, around 66,470 near breakout price).
- Position activation: break 66,110 on 1H close (4H break failure).
- Stop/invalid: lead recovers to 66,820; main recovers to 67,210. Full exit if 67,530 is recovered.
- Targets: 65,580 (partial profit + cost), 64,840 / 64,520.
- RR: 66,470 breakout / 66,820 stop -> RR2.5; 65,580 target +890 RR2.5; 64,840 target +1,630 RR4.7.
- MFE protection: exit at +200 cost basis or small profit; +300 ensures at least +100 or trailing. Given higher-timeframe uptrends, do not expect deep declines unless 66,470 breaks. In new-high regime, beware false breakouts and rapid reversals.
9. Current Actions
- Most important line 1: 67,210–66,800 — 15m turning to Night wave turning break level (support turned). If this holds, continue pullback buying (trend-following). If broken, expect short-term consolidation toward 66,470 (Night low).
- Most important line 2: 67,530 — Night high. A close above on 15m confirms new-high pursuit and breakout-follow long (67,890 → 68,800). If price falls below 66,470 (Night low), up-move may fail; breakdown below 66,110 (4H break level) warns of 4H break failure.
10. Cautions
- Entry price, trigger, and stop are set based on the chart shape at the close of each interval. If structure changes with time, unless higher-timeframe structure changes, adjust entry price using lower-timeframe turning price (e.g., if a short-term leg moves down then turns up) to better reflect actual conditions.
- Weekend gap risk; monitor Monday open gap and treat open break as partial fulfillment if price clears conditions; otherwise pullback buys not reached in zone remain unfilled.
- All of 4H / 1H / 15m are up and in new-high territory; buy with MFE protection early (near 68,800 old ceiling).
- Retracement selling and break-follow shorts are counter-trend; avoid until 67,210 break + retracement stall or 66,470 break confirmed. Do not chase in rising 20MA region.
- If a firing-confirmation bar has already reached Target 1, skip entering.
11. About This Report
This report analyzes NK225 futures using the Dow Theory Indicator across three timeframes: 4H / 1H / 15m.
This report is for information purposes only and not financial advice. Investment decisions are the reader's responsibility.