Why hasn't the USD/JPY moved recently? Signs of a big crash?
Why has the recent USD/JPY movement stalled? Signs of a big drop?
There are factors in the declining volume, and it resembles the 2024 situation, so it’s considered a sign of a big drop
I’ve heard such talk,
but declining volume is not necessarily a sign of a crash
The following talks↓↓
Rather, what’s important
・Whether the Bank of Japan will raise rates again
・How much the Federal Reserve will cut rates
・Whether the US-Japan interest rate gap will narrow
Even the 2024 yen appreciation was not just intervention; the core was the narrowing interest rate differential
From a trader’s perspective,
“There is a similar calm as in 2024. Yet, there are not yet enough factors to confirm a yen appreciation trend like in 2024.”
That is the most sober view at this moment
The market is now
evaluating whether this is an energy-accumulation period before big moves, or merely a lack of directional clarity
to determine the trend
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(Also added a currency-strength filter here)
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