Chapter 1-2: The Cruel Truth of the Market ~The Only World Where Efforts Are Not Rewarded~
In the first installment, I talked about my life’s biggest drawdown in 1999 and the “paradox of effort” in the markets.
In this continuation, the second installment: "The IT Bubble Fever and the Maze of the Holy Grail," I will reveal my deeper experiences of despair and expose the true nature of the “sweet temptations” that proliferate in the market.
【Second Installment: The IT Bubble Frenzy and the Maze of the Holy Grail】
An era when all of humanity believed they were geniuses
“If you buy stocks, money will increase by tomorrow”
From 1999 to 2000, all of Japan was in a frenzy as if under a mass hypnotism. The so-called IT Bubble.
At that time, stocks like SoftBank and Hikari Tsushin soared beyond reason, breaking through logical bounds.
It was a bubble of desire that kept expanding, unlike the tension when the yen first crossed 100 yen in 1994.
Everyone and their neighbor flocked to companies named “dot-com,” and salaried workers and housewives who had never even heard of investing before suddenly believed they could make hundreds of thousands in unrealized gains overnight and truly believed they had investment talent.
I, who had been lurking as a “corporate slave” at my new job, was swept into the whirlpool of that frenzy as well.
The caution I had cultivated as a technician at a small factory was completely erased by the headlines of “millionaires” dancing on TV and in magazines every day.
At the time, I bought 100 shares of SoftBank stock at a price of 170,000–180,000 yen per share, a high price akin to the summit of Mount Fuji.
For me then, it was a literal “special attack” risking all my assets for a fresh start.
However, the moment I thought I had reached the top of the mountain, the ground beneath disappeared.
They say the peak of a bubble shines most beautifully just before it bursts, but that was only the overture to collapse.
The stock price that had reached 180,000 yen began to fall like a rock rolling down a hillside, and by autumn it plummeted to as low as 10,000 yen.
A brain that cannot cut losses, a mind that deteriorates
Before my eyes, numbers in the hundreds of thousands of yen melt away and disappear.
The mental state as I watched that spectacle is indescribably strange.
“If I sell now, I’ll incur a loss of 5,000,000 yen. But if I don’t sell, it’s not yet a loss.” I was seized by the sweet poison of this “undetermined loss.”
Even while eating, a black fog of defeat covered my mind, and I could not taste the rice at all.
Even on TV, the laughter sounded like distant noise. My entire body felt as heavy as lead, and I could not enjoy anything, in a state of apathy.
At night, when I lay down, closing my eyes would bring chart remnants stuck to my retina, and my heart pounded loudly in my ears.
Eventually, I lost funds to the point of being irrecoverable, and when I raised the white flag, all that remained in my account was a miserable small balance.
It was then I learned for the first time.
In a market where “numbers are personality,” those who lose have only the value of garbage left behind.
The Mirage Named the Holy Grail
Having suffered a big loss and hit rock bottom, the next thing I sought was a one-shot turn of fortune—a “magic” spell.
I thought, “The reason I couldn’t win despite so much effort was that I hadn’t yet known the ‘true logic.’”
From there began my wandering in search of the Holy Grail.
On internet forums and in advertisements, there are words that shake the souls of battered investors: “5000万 annual income is easy,” “100万円 in 9 months to 1億円,” “God’s indicator with a 90% win rate.”
Desperately, I spent several million yen on information products and expensive seminars.
One product arrived in an ostentatiously dark envelope. With my hands trembling, I opened it to find contents that were hard to believe.
“If you think it’s a ‘buy,’ then sell. Conversely, if you think it’s a ‘sell,’ then buy. Just doing the opposite of human instinct will prevent you from being short of money.”
The absurdity made me angry to the point of dry laughter.
Yet, ironically, it would take several more years before I realized that this line—“go against your instincts”—hit at the heart of market nature.
Ninety-nine percent of those products were garbage, containing content not even tested. They cherry-pick past periods to appear universally valid into the future, a pile of overfitting.
I bought them all, further reducing my funds and wasting precious time in the wastebin.
The greatest poison named “Luck”
In the world of markets, there is a cruel mechanism that leads beginners to ruin. It is the phenomenon that a novice with no knowledge happens to win by luck.
I call this “luck” and warning as the most poisonous.
Once you win big by beginner’s luck, your brain records that intense pleasure. Then you start to attribute future losses not to lack of skill but to bad luck.
It’s the same structure as someone who hits a big win in a pachinko parlor, and then, after dozens of losses, cannot forget that feeling and keeps going back.
The moment you mistake luck for skill, the doors to hell open.
The money won by luck is nothing more than debt you must return to the market with interest. If you overestimate it as your ability and raise your lifestyle or your lot size, the market ruthlessly takes all of it, including your dignity.
“Even when you win, it’s luck. Even when you lose, it’s luck.” If you are elated or swayed by every trade, turning the market into an ATM is impossible.
The Invisible Enemy in Front of the Lonely Monitor
