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Hello! This is Tejima from Gogojan.
"Why do 90% of traders fail?"
In the FX world where 90% of traders are said to exit,
this time, as a year-end special free seminar,
we had a lecture on the theme ofFX NOBILITYby Mr./Ms. Nobility of FX.
*This time, FX Nobility has given a free gift to everyone watching the video.
Please obtain it using the password in the video.
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| Over 2,000 copies sold in total |
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FX NOBILITY
After graduating from university, he quit his civil servant job in one month and chose the investment path to become a noble from a worker.
Started automated trading in 2017.
At Gogojungle, has over 2,000 copies sold in total, and has achievements such as official tie-ups with domestic securities firms, appearances on Radio Nikkei, magazine serialization, and school lecturing.
Encounter with trading
• He quit his job impulsively and started thinking of how to earn money on his own
• Initially, a gambling trade led to a loss of 500,000 yen
• Studied from books, realized the importance of backtesting, and started automated trading because manual testing was tedious
• Debuted as a developer on Gogojan in 2017
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Thank you for lecturing today.
Who is this lecture aimed at? |
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| GogoNyan |
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• This year, I again lost more in trades
• Even after studying, I can’t grasp the knack
• In the first place, I don’t know what to learn
• Signals tools and EAs didn’t last long
• I don’t know what to trust
• I want to start from zero again |
I see.
Many people struggle because they don’t know what to learn, so this is very helpful.
I look forward to it. |
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| GogoNyan |
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Truly winning traders are few
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| FX Nobility |
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Here's a quick quiz.
This figure shows where a plane that was hit returned to the base was hit.
Looking at this, where should we reinforce? |
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| Where is it... It seems all places are important; perhaps the tail? |
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| GogoNyan |
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| FX Nobility |
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On first glance, you might think to reinforce the hit areas, but actually you should reinforce the areas that were not hit.
This is a plane that returned after being hit, so you can say the hit areas were not problematic.
What I want to convey here is that judging from surface results alone can mislead you.
This is survivor bias, but in trading terms, behind every winning trader there are many losing traders.
The same goes for signal tools and EAs: there are losing tools that fail even though some tools win. |
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Three reasons you can't win in trading
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| FX Nobility |
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Next is an explanation of the reasons you can't win in trading.
First reason: "Trading is a negative-sum game." |
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| In a non-zero-sum, a negative-sum means that when you total the profits and losses of all participants, the result is negative, right? |
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| GogoNyan |
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| FX Nobility |
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Yes, because there are earnings from fees and spreads on the operator side, if you trade carelessly you end up negative.
Relying on luck will eventually lead to losses, so it’s obvious, but finding a profitable method is important. |
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| FX Nobility |
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Holy Grail means a rule that guarantees you will win, right?
There is no such sweet thing. |
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| FX Nobility |
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It is impossible to predict 100% how price will move, so even if you find a winning method, whether it will work in the future indefinitely is unknown until you try.
A common issue with EAs is that backtests look good, but when run live they don’t win.
Therefore, even a winning method needs to be adjusted to the current market conditions. |
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| FX Nobility |
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| Three reasons you can't win in trading: the third is that "mental management" can become unstable. |
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| Even if you understand it in words, putting mental management into practice is difficult. |
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| FX Nobility |
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That's right.
Even with a winning method, if your mind wobbles you cannot win in trading.
Holding on to losses without cutting them is a typical mental defeat.
To maintain stable mental management, you need to create an environment that enforces rules.
To summarize the above, |
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Find a winning methodby backtesting yourselfand discover it
Operate flexiblyaccording to the market
Mental managementproperly |
| It seems difficult to acquire everything by yourself. |
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| GogoNyan |
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| FX Nobility |
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Yes, of course, if you acquire all three, you become a professional trader.
Since it’s nearly impossible to do everything on your own, use tools and communities efficiently to get closer to that quickly. |
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Tips for trading improvement: Find weapons and allies
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| Using tools and communities effectively—how exactly should you do it? |
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| FX Nobility |
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FirstTrading tools are like swords and shields—weapons.With good weapons, you can win more by structure than effort, but you must master how to use the weapons.
I will discuss this in more detail later.
As for the community, having comrades fighting alongside you brings you much closer to victory.
The market is a information war, so joining a community lets you gain a lot of information.
Additionally, having companions provides mental support, so your trading results become more stable.
In short,equipping both weapons and allies creates an environment where you can win. |
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Traders who are winning tend to be active in information exchange.
GogoJungle has communities that anyone can join as well as communities for people who purchased specific products.
We want many people to find comrades. |
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| GogoNyan |
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Five points for tool selection
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| FX Nobility |
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Before explaining tool selection, I will compare signal tools and EAs.
Understand that both have pros and cons. |
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| FX Nobility |
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・Past performance (backtests)is published
・Reliablevendor, developer
・Overview of logic, andwhat market it excels at (weak at)is understood
・Communityprovides ongoing support
・Mentalindicators obtainable |
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| FX Nobility |
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| Having all five together may not be easy, but it’s important to persist in searching. |
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Thank you!
Today we learned about survivor bias and the three reasons you can’t win in trading, and what tools and community to seek to overcome that.
Next time, we plan to discuss FX Nobility’s community and video courses. |
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| GogoNyan |
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| Episode 1 |
| [Year-End Special Free Seminar] Why do 90% of traders fail? [FX Nobility / Episode 1] |
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| Discretionary judgment simplified! Semi-discretionary system that enhances trading reproducibility |
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【Semi- discretionary EA】 Izanami System
A new approach combining discretion and EA to accumulate profit.
Password is in the second video.
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